TORONTO (May 8) — What an exhilarating moment to be a fan of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Especially a fan less than 30 years of age, with perhaps hazy recollection of his or her favorite team posing a Stanley Cup challenge.

That would be back in 2002, when the Leafs advanced to Game 6 of the Conference final before bowing (in overtime) to Carolina. Here we are, 23 years later, and Toronto is guaranteed its deepest playoff run since 2004, when it lost in six to Philadelphia in the second round. Not since 1987 have the Leafs won the first two games of a second–round series… and it must serve as a cautionary tale. A mediocre Toronto team shocked the Detroit Red Wings by taking both matches at Joe Louis Arena. The Leafs then grabbed a 3–1 series lead at Maple Leaf Gardens when forward Mike Allison scored in overtime. Six nights later, it was stunningly over for Toronto.

Detroit won Game 7 at home, having outscored the Leafs, 10–2, in the final three encounters.

Remarkably, we must travel all the way back to 1963 for the last time the Leafs began Round 2 with a pair of home victories. Also against Detroit, but in the Stanley Cup final, which the best team of the Punch Imlach–led dynasty annexed in five games. We aren’t there, yet, with the current Leafs, but neither would most people anticipate Florida winning four of the remaining five matches in this Eastern Conference match–up. Not the way Craig Berube’s charges are performing. In fact, part of me thinks the Panthers may not win a single game in this round.

As I emphasized prior to the series, the Maple Leafs absolutely had to sweep these initial matches at Scotiabank Arena. Heading to Sunrise with a split — or a two–game deficit, as in 2023 — would not have worked. Instead, the club finds itself in marvelous statistical terriory: National Hockey League teams that win the first two games in a best–of–seven playoff round prevail 86.3% of the time. Turning it around, the Maple Leafs, right now, stand merely a 13.7% chance of not advancing to the Stanley Cup semifinals for the first time since that ’02 series against the Hurricanes. Game 3 is obviously mandatory now for the defending champions. As many are aware, only four teams in Stanley Cup history have come back from 0–3 in a best–of–seven. This will be a particularly arduous chore for the Panthers if Sergei Bobrovsky doesn’t get dialed in. The goalie that was expected to dominate this series has thus far been mediocre. Meanwhile, Joseph Woll has subbed effectively for Anthony Stolarz.

CLOCK RUNS OUT ON THE DEFENDING STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS IN GAME 2. SPORTSNET IMAGE

The biggest factor of all, however, is that Florida doesn’t appear as hungry as the Leafs. Dynasties are extremely rare in a salary capped sport and the Panthers — vying for a third consecutive trip to the Stanley Cup final, having narrowly defeated Edmonton last spring — aren’t playing with the same desire or commiment. Not yet, anyway. While the Leafs are getting spectacular minutes from William Nylander; timely scoring from Mitch Marner and secondary production throughout the roster, the big Florida names have been mostly silent. We haven’t heard much at all from Matthew Tkachuk — on or off the ice. And, who would have predicted that? Brad Marchand did score in Game 2 but hasn’t been nearly the thorn as during his Boston heyday, when he infamously licked the salty face of Leo Komarov. Sasha Barkov put Florida up, 1–0, with a lightning–fast powerplay goal, but was otherwise quiet.

There’s just nothing particularly sinister about the defending champs as the playoff round moves south.

That could change, of course, in the raucous arena next to the Everglades. Providing the Panthers are interested. There was plenty of physical contact in Game 2, but you never had the sense that Florida would assume control. The Leafs had an answer for just about everything. Which is very un–Leafy during the Core–4 playoff era. The big gunners seem to be moving around without that figurative anvil on their backs. Primarily because goaltending has provided the Toronto skaters confidence that a mistake can be made without allowing a score. This was most evident in modern Leafs history when Curtis Joseph took over from Felix Potvin for the 1998–99 season. With virtually the same impotent roster as the previous year, the Leafs improved scoring by 74 goals (from 194 to 268). Having missed the playoffs in ’97–98, the club (under new coach Pat Quinn) advanced to the Cup semifinals before losing to Buffalo. That’s the impact reliable goaltending can have on a team. Neither are the current Leafs permitting untimely fluff tallies, as during the Frederik Andersen and Jack Campbell playoff eras. Even without a noticeable contribution from Auston Matthews, Toronto has prevailed in six of eight matches so far this spring.

That speaks of roster balance… and, again, of sound netminding.

The Leafs haven’t dropped a best–of–seven series after winning the first two games since 1995, when Chicago shook off a pair of defeats at home to prevail in seven. This also happened, as written, against Detroit in 1987. And, against Philadelphia, in 1977, when Darryl Sittler, Lanny McDonald, Borje Salming and Co. shocked the Flyers by winning the first two matches at the old Spectrum. Only to lose four straight; Games 3 and 4 at home in overtime (yes, Toronto could have swept). So, silly sh** does happen in the Stanley Cup chase. As Leaf rooters are agonizingly aware. At the moment, the Causeway Street Calamity in 2013 (when the Leafs blew a 4–1 third–period lead at Boston in Game 7) and the folderoo of 2021 (Toronto coughed up a 3–1 series edge to Montreal) seem distant memories. They will become more vivid if the Panthers scramble back into the series on home ice.

And, this also is true — albeit untimely and perhaps unfair to the Leafs at the moment. Given the playoff misadventures of the Core–4 era, there are only two scenarios for the club: Remain in the 86.3 percentile of teams that advance after winning Games 1 and 2 in a best–of–seven series. Or, lose four of the next five to the Panthers and cement a nearly decade–long reputation for underachievement. In this case, the ‘C’ word will emerge. And, no hockey team wants to choke in the spring. There’s a sense of accomplishment in Leafs Nation right now, with a big lead over the Stanley Cup champs. But, we all know the masses will start howling, once more, if the Panthers show some life at home on Friday night. So, enjoy the feeling of anticipation. But, be sure to stay grounded.

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