TORONTO (May 3) — It was 32 years ago, at Maple Leaf Gardens, that Doug Gilmour scored his legendary overtime goal against St. Louis. May 3, 1993. You’ve probably seen it a hundred times — the diminutive Gilmour with the puck behind an embattled Curtis Joseph, the future Leaf who would face more than 60 shots in Game 2 of a division final. Like a drunkard seeking refuge, Gilmour zig–zagged disjointedly before stuffing a backhand wraparound past Cujo in the second OT. The Leafs would eliminate the Blues in seven then go the distance with Wayne Gretzky and the Los Angeles Kings before bowing at the Gardens. It remains the closest the club has ventured, since 1967, to the Stanley Cup final. I mention this not for nostalgia, but to emphasize that Toronto had a playoff machete that year in the unflagging Gilmour, who amassed a franchise–record 35 points in 21 games.

And, I’ll make the argument, right now, that the Leafs have not possessed such a Stanley Cup weapon until this season. Not with Mats Sundin. Not with Alexander Mogilny, Tyler Bozak, Phil Kessel or Dion Phaneuf. And, certainly not — as of now — with any of William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews and John Tavares. Neither will the Leafs be favored to eliminate Florida in their Conference semifinal. But, there could be an enormous neutralizing factor for the Blue and White: that behemoth wearing No. 41 and standing so ably between the pipes.

For my money, the Leafs acquired, from Florida, their best franchise goalie since the aforementioned Cujo roamed the crease between 1998 and 2002. Anthony Stolarz, signed as a free agent last July, has the ability to backstop this Leafs club to the championship round. Make no mistake about it. Whereas the Torontonians fall short against the Panthers in other significant areas, they do not take a back seat in the game’s most–important position.

Sergei Bobrovsky against his teammate and back–up on last year’s National Hockey League titlist will engender much scrutiny when the division rivals begin their clash, Monday night, at Scotiabank Arena. Stolarz will need to be the equal of Bobrovsky for the Leafs to stand a chance in the series. And, there’s no indication, as of now, that he’ll flunk that test. Otherwise, the same breed of roster that drained and demoralized the Maple Leafs in four playoff rounds against Boston since 2013 will be painfully evident in this best–of–seven round. With one of the prime characters, Brad Marchand, now wearing Florida–red. If the Core–4 Leafs are able to withstand the relentless physical assault from Marchand, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett and Co., it will be for the first time. This genre of the club, since 2018, has surrendered (meekly, at times) to such a snarly opponent. No one can credibly say that the Brendan Shanahan Leafs have been built to stand toe–to–toe in mid ring with a testy playoff rival.

And, this Florida group may be the testiest of ’em all.

Expect the playoff–grizzled Panthers to pound Nylander, Marner and Matthews at every turn. As they did, so effectively, two years ago in the same playoff round. Florida demolished the Leafs in five and Matthews contributed not a single tally. The skilled Toronto forwards have demonstrably withered against a dogged, unyielding forecheck. The Panthers possess all the ingredients that have stymied the Leafs in the playoffs for nearly a decade. Paul Maurice will vehemently remind his skaters to render abuse within the boundaries of NHL law. Or, another equalizing factor will emerge: the Toronto powerplay. At least the limitless potential of the gifted Leaf tacticians playing with a man advantage. If the Panthers go to the penalty box with any regularity, they’ll be ripe for an uncrowning.

Especially if Stolarz remains dialed in at the opposite end.

I look for this to be a tighter battle than the lopsided series of 2023, when the Leafs came in rather satisfied, having toppled the Lightning for the club’s first playoff triumph since 2004. Matthews hit a few posts but generally succumbed to the physical aggression. He, Nylander and Marner tend to migrate, progressively, to the perimeter of the ice when maltreated in the playoffs. I don’t anticipate much of a change in the upcoming fortnight. Again, if there is a switch, it’ll be the first time for this Toronto group; perhaps marginally improved with the kid, Matthew Knies, up front. Paramount, in my view, is for the Leafs to win Games 1 and 2 at home. The Panthers will be without defenseman Aaron Ekblad for the opener, as he serves the latter of a two–game suspension. Heading to Sunrise with a split won’t get it done for the Maple Leafs. A pair of defeats at home, as in 2023, will make for another swift exit and lead to the same, tiresome questions about the beleaguered Toronto nucleus.

I will not be shocked if this playoff round goes seven games. Only because of Stolarz.

But, I suspect the Panthers will take down the Leafs on home ice in Game 6.

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