Leafs Blew The Wrong Load

TORONTO (Oct. 28) — The headline to this blog is neither pornographic nor suggestive. It does, however, reflect my long–held opinion that the Toronto Maple Leafs should have traded Auston Matthews before July 1 of this year, rather than binding him to the National Hockey League’s most–lucrative pact. I maintain, unequivocally, that the Leafs would be better served with Mitch Marner and William Nylander as headliners of the forward group; the colossal sum accorded Matthews ($13,250,000 starting next season) — and the soon–to–expire contract of John Tavares ($11 million through next season) — spent on adding toughness, opportunism and defensive acumen to a club that lacks such elements in its core group. Nylander, in particular, is showing his value and merit early in the 2023–24 schedule, which should not surprise any person that has followed the Blue and White in the past decade.

Even while enjoying their best October in a few years, the Leafs remain top–heavy with skill and passivity: a blend that works well between October and April; not–so well afterward. Nylander was the whipping boy of smug Leafs Nation prior to the season — the fan base, evidently thrilled over the Matthews contract extension, calling for Willie to be offloaded in the final year of a ridiculously manageable contract. It was the best deal signed by former general manager Kyle Dubas, even if he sullied the occasion (on Dec. 1, 2018) by publicly vowing to never trade the slick winger. Dubas made good on his claim, departing for Pittsburgh without touching the core of the roster.

Now, it’s the task of current GM Brad Treliving to work Nylander into Toronto’s long–term plan, which will be a challenge, even with the stagnant, $81.5 million salary cap expected to rise closer to $90 million in the next couple of years. As always, it isn’t the amount of money the Leafs spend. Unlike Harold Ballard, Steve Stavro and (at times) the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, the current ownership of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment hasn’t a shred of frugality. The issue is appropriately allocating dollars in the cap universe — the playoffs having proven, over and over, that the Leafs do it poorly. Treliving cannot allow Nylander to walk for nothing next summer. The only reason Willie’s name surfaces in trade talk is that the other principals in the Core–4 (Matthews, Marner, Tavares) cannot be moved. Nor were their contracts tradable even before Matthews re–upped with the team.


(AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)

Though, at times, imperceptible, Nylander has been the best of the elite Toronto forwards in the playoffs. Matthews is everybody’s darling and will continue, perilously, to serve as face of the franchise. But, Nylander “gets it” better than Matthews or Marner in the Stanley Cup hunt. None of the core forwards has proven playoff worthy because this particular group, while intact, will never prevail when it matters. Individually, on a more–balanced team, Nylander and Marner would prosper most from April to June. Both have smoldering fire in their bellies; the way Matthews does during the regular season, but not in the playoffs. Tavares always looks good in the early months of the schedule, as legs are fresh. By March and April, his age (now 33) begins to triumph (though the captain performed very well in the playoffs against Tampa Bay and scored the series winner in overtime).

I have long felt that Matthews will never haul the Leafs into Stanley Cup contention.

But, even I was startled by his disappearance against Florida last May — particularly in Game 3 (accompanied, copiously, by his Core–4 ‘mates) with the Leafs on the ropes after losing the first two matches at Scotiabank Arena. When the five–game series ended without Matthews contributing a single goal, his future should have been cemented. In fact, given a different team president, the Leafs may well have explored a trade involving Matthews, thereby eliminating the hinderance of a no–move clause that kicked in on Canada Day. Brendan Shanahan, however, long–ago hitched his wagon to No. 34… without tangible playoff results through seven tries.

Nylander, meanwhile, seems oblivious to the maelstrom surrounding him, even if quieted, somewhat, by his splendid first two weeks of the schedule (seven goals and 11 points in seven games). Though his regular–season numbers haven’t been as eye–popping as Matthews’, the oldest of the Leaf core forwards (27) handles himself effectively in the playoffs (he was superb in that 2021 debacle against Montreal, but overwhelmed by his somnolent teammates; the Maple Leafs blowing a 3–1 series lead). Now, he’s reenacting his contract dance from the early months of the 2018–19 season, when he came within minutes of having to sit out the entire schedule (if not signed by Dec. 1). Willie’s agent, the forever–strategic Lewis Gross (president of the company that employs Michael Nylander, William’s father), appears to be driving the bus once more. If Willie continues to put up good numbers (he’s performing at a 120–point pace early on) and can equal or better his career–high 40 goals from last season, he’ll cash in, big time — either sooner (with the Leafs) or later (as a franchise–altering free agent in July).

Unlike Matthews, Nylander doesn’t seem married to Toronto… or the Leafs. As such, Treliving should be prepared to trade* No. 88 prior to the Mar. 8 NHL deadline. Not to the exclusion of attempting to sign him, but in the event the parties cannot agree on a multi–year extension. Which should have been the strategy with Matthews prior to July 1 of this year. Instead, Shanahan and Treliving blew their load on the wrong horse. To no one’s surprise.
*Nylander has a limited no–movement clause. He can submit 10 teams to which he will not be traded. 

ON THIS DATE… 56 YEARS AGO

 
I will always remember Oct. 28, 1967 for the first Leafs game I attended against one of the six expansion teams that entered the league that season. I will never forget the bright green pants worn by the California Seals, as no team in my life (to that point) had featured such a color. The Seals were replete with former Toronto players: Gary Smith, Aut Erickson, Larry Cahan, Wally Boyer, Billy Harris, Gerry Ehman, Kent Douglas and Bobby Baun. The Leafs breezed to a 5–2 victory. 

 
VINTAGE GRAPES…


FROM THE EARLY YEARS OF COACH’S CORNER ON HOCKEY NIGHT IN CANADA. APR. 12, 1986 (ABOVE AND BELOW). GAME 3 OF THE OPENING PLAYOFF ROUND AT MAPLE LEAF GARDENS BETWEEN TORONTO AND CHICAGO. THOUGH THE BLACKHAWKS FINISHED 29 POINTS (86–57) AHEAD OF THE LEAFS IN THE NORRIS DIVISION, THE UNDERDOG VISITORS PREVAILED IN GAMES 1 AND 2 AT CHICAGO STADIUM. COACHED BY DAN MALONEY, THE MAPLE LEAFS CAPPED A SWEEP IN THE BEST–OF–FIVE SERIES WITH A 7–2 POUNDING ON HOME ICE. DON CHERRY WAS STILL CO–HOSTING WITH DAVE HODGE, WHOSE TENURE AT CBC WOULD END LATER IN THE ’86 PLAYOFFS WHEN HE FAMOUSLY FLIPPED A PENCIL IN DISGUST OVER A DECISION TO FOREGO HOCKEY FOR THE NATIONAL NEWS. RON MacLEAN, FROM RED DEER, ALTA., REPLACED HODGE AND BECAME THE YIN TO CHERRY’S YAN ON HOCKEY NIGHT FOR THE NEXT 33 YEARS. CBC IMAGES

 
FROM THE VAULT… OLDEST MEDIA GUIDES

Among the more than 1,000 historic NHL media guides in my collection are these oldest items from the pre and early expansion era. All six teams (Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Montreal, New York, Toronto) are represented — the fact books dating from 1960 to 1973. Most teams stopped publishing physical guides around 2009, switching to digital information. As such, these colorful books are becoming increasingly difficult to find. On the cover of several, you’ll see written the name Stan Obodiac. Stan was the publicity director of Maple Leaf Gardens from 1959 to 1984, when he died of cancer. Not long after his terminal diagnosis, he called me up to his office and told me to take his old guides, which had literally been collecting dust. It was a windfall… and a gift I could never repay. Stan had a stack of items from the 1960’s, in remarkably good shape.

The others presented here were purchased by me at memorabilia shows. Please enjoy:


BOSTON BRUINS MEDIA GUIDES LEADING INTO, AND STARTING, THE BOBBY ORR ERA: 1963–67.


MATCHING THE OLDEST MEDIA GUIDE IN MY COLLECTION, THESE TWO DETROIT BOOKS WERE HANDED OUT TOGETHER FOR THE 1960–61 NHL SEASON — NOW 63 YEARS AGO.


THE MONTREAL CANADIENS HAD WON THEIR RECORD FIFTH CONSECUTIVE STANLEY CUP WHEN THE CLUB’S 1960–61 YEARBOOK (FAR LEFT) CAME OUT. THE 1961–62 PRESS BOOKS OF THE CHICAGO BLACK HAWKS AND DETROIT RED WINGS. AND, AT RIGHT, THE OLDEST TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS MEDIA GUIDE IN MY COLLECTION: 1962–63 (WITH CAPTAIN GEORGE ARMSTRONG ON THE COVER) AFTER THE FIRST OF THREE STRAIGHT NHL CHAMPIONSHIPS UNDER PUNCH IMLACH.


TORONTO AND MONTREAL MEDIA GUIDES FROM 1965–66 AND 1966–67. THE CANADIENS WON THE STANLEY CUP IN THE FIRST YEAR (BEATING DETROIT). THE MAPLE LEAFS SHOCKED THE CANADIENS THE FOLLOWING SEASON (CANADA’S CENTENNIAL) FOR THEIR MOST–RECENT NHL TITLE.


UNDER GENERAL MANAGER/COACH EMILE FRANCIS, THE NEW YORK RANGERS GRADUALLY EMERGED AS A CONTENDER IN THE EARLY 70’s. BUT, THE MID–TO–LATE 60’s WERE LEAN YEARS FOR THE BLUESHIRTS. HERE ARE GUIDES LEADING INTO THE FIRST SEASON OF EXPANSION (1967–68).


LED BY THE AGELESS GORDIE HOWE, DETROIT WAS A STRONG TEAM IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE 1960’s, LOSING THE STANLEY CUP TO THE LEAFS IN 1963 AND 1964 (GUIDES AT LEFT). BY THE TIME THE NHL EXPANDED FROM SIX TO 12 TEAMS (GUIDES AT RIGHT), THE RED WINGS WERE IN DECLINE.


CHICAGO HAS THE MOST–RECOGNIZABLE (AND CONTENTIOUS) HOCKEY LOGO. BACK IN THE DAY, NO ONE BATTED AN EYELASH AT THE EXPLOITATION OF THE INDIAN CULTURE. IN THE MID–60’s (GUIDES LEFT AND CENTER), THE LATE, GREAT BOBBY HULL TURNED CHICAGO INTO THE NHL’s BIGGEST ATTRACTION. MY SON, SHANE, WAS APPALLED BY THE COVER OF THE 1970–71 GUIDE (RIGHT). AND, CHICAGO FANS WERE APPALLED WHEN THEIR TEAM BLEW A 2–0 SERIES LEAD AND LOST THE STANLEY CUP IN SEVEN GAMES TO ROOKIE KEN DRYDEN AND MONTREAL.


MORE OLDIES, INCLUDING THE ERA OF THE “BIG, BAD BRUINS” (BOTTOM ROW), WHEN PHIL ESPOSITO AND BOBBY ORR LED BOSTON TO STANLEY CUPS IN 1970 AND 1972. THE 1963–64 MAPLE LEAFS (GUIDE TOP ROW) WON A THIRD CONSECUTIVE STANLEY CUP UNDER PUNCH IMLACH.

EMAIL: HOWARDLBERGER@GMAIL.COM

9 comments on “Leafs Blew The Wrong Load

  1. Despite nylander’s slight increase in production I wouldn’t necessarily be keen on keeping him. Or Matthews. Or marner. Nylander’s playoff success, which is negligible in part because he plays against secondary defence in the playoffs, is equal to less points than Matthews and marner. (And I’m not suggesting that slightly higher numbers means either Matthews or marner contribute more. Matthews is an MVP yet in the playoffs he’s been outplayed by nic Paul, Pierre luc Dubois, Nick Suzuki. Marner is a two time NHL first team all Star yet seems to disappear to the side in every series.)

    The problem with the leafs is they play a puck possession game. And they’re great when they have the puck and are free to skate. But they lose battles for the puck along the boards, behind the net and in front of the net. In both zones.

    Add in the constantly average goaltending and below average defensive group to reasons why there’s a lack of playoff success.

    Perhaps the only reason why the leafs have zero playoff success is because ownership and upper management don’t plan for playoff success. It is my feeling that a cup (or multiple long playoff runs) will not bring in new or more season ticket holders. Or get higher tv ratings. Or sell more merchandise. Or sell more at the concession stands.

    Even in a recession the maple leafs will still sell out and earn all the money from ancillary services. This group is who the fans want to watch (most fans are blind to the faults of the group) and because of the core 4 leafs fan have more “hope” (delusion) than ever. Because of that ownership and management will keep this group together and say after every playoff failure, “it’s hard to win a cup.” (Obviously that’s not completely true, Vegas won a cup and went to the finals another time and has had 4 conference finals appearances in 6 years. It’s not hard to win a cup unless you only focus on 41 home games against random teams.)

    This leafs would lose to almost any team in a best of 7 series.

    1. Matthews Marner and Mylander are worth keeping. But, at the right price. They are all overpaid and will continue to be overpaid. After that, they need 17 players to fill out a lineup and 20 players to fill out a roster. Some good prospects and some decent players are here now, but there is too much junk as well. Let’s have some good management for a change.

      1. The best value in Matthews, marner and Nylander is the picks, prospects and players (and cap space) you would get in return for trading them. They have proven in the playoffs, which is the most crucial and important time, that they’re not the “superstars” they’re advertised as. All three produce at least than a point a game in the playoffs in 7 different seasons.

        If anyone believes all are worthwhile in keeping you just proved my point. Leafs management will overpay all of them because management and ownership wants to keep the sizzle of the regular season going with all the fans happy at the 41 home games. No other ownership and management group would keep this group together with the constant playoff disappointments.

  2. 8 games into the season and the Leafs look terrible. Joe Woll is saving the season so far. Marner and Matthews don’t have a steady linemate. How about Zach Hyman? Good thing M&M earn so much that they can’t fill the roster around them with competent players. All of Treliving’s ufa signings are garbage! Curious to see what he does from now on. He screwed the Flames royally before leaving them. Signing Huberdeau, Weegar and Kadri to long term contracts that can’t be unloaded. I bet he can do the same in Toronto. There was no need to sign Matthews immediately, and it was dead wrong to give him a raise. There is no hurry to re-sign Nylander. Maybe he’ll sign Tavares to an 8 year extension at 12 million per.
    Lots of ufas to trade away, though. Samsonov, Klingberg, Bertuzzi, Domi, and more. Giordano, Brodie, Gregor. And the sooner the better. But then, when is that last time the Leafs did anything right? Since drafting Matthews, not one thing. They started trading away draft picks right afterward. A first and a second for Fredrik Andersen. And they haven’t stopped yet. Or maybe Sam Lafferty for a fifth to Vancouver was the stopper there. Leafs fan going insane here.

  3. I’d be scared to throw the dice on replacing Matthews. Vegas got Eichel and won a Cup.
    I remember Hab fans complaining year after year that their incompetent GM Bergevin was not able to get them a #1 center. Bergevin said he knew they needed a center and he was trying to get one but it was easier said than done.

    Now the Leafs have a #1 center so it would be a mistake to trade him. Just improve the team they have. It could be Dubas did not know what he was doing. The Pens with their “star” Erik might not even make the playoffs. Leafs could already have the goalie in Woll. I have read the cap could get to $88.5 next year so there should be money for Nylander. I would not resign Domi and Bertuzzi who are over paid. In two years resign Tavares for a lot less and there would be money for Marner.

  4. I expect that the leafs will re-sign Nylander to an 11-12 million dollar contract for 8 years. It’s apparent that Shanahan has fallen for the notion that a team can’t have too much talent but hasn’t noticed that the teams that are truly successful (Stanley cup) have a traditional big defence and decent balance throughout the line up. It becomes more and more apparent that the primary goal of MLSE is maximizing revenues through star appeal as opposed to on-ice success. Pedalling one of the coreless/corpse 3 would provide cap space to address multiple roster issues. Instead Treliving will likely continue the self destructive practice of emptying the draft cupboard at the deadline in search of a quick fix. I agree with you Howard, Mathews hasn’t shown ANY guile in the playoffs, but Marner really hasn’t shown anything to be proud of in the post season either and combined they make Nylander’s performance look like grit and dedication.

  5. Howard,

    Any chance Toronto flips Nylander for say …. Miro Heiskanen? Rasmus Dahlin?

    Toronto’s playing the same slip-slop style of defense making it hard to keep the puck out of your own net.

    I can’t see Toronto getting out of the first round without a serious change in their MO. They were lucky to beat Tampa last year, and I don’t think that they can rely on luck anymore than the saps who play lotto 649 for their retirement plan.

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