Auston Matthews is the first player with 45 goals in his first 51 games since Mario Lemieux had 51 goals in his first 51 games of 1995-96.
— Sportsnet via Twitter

TORONTO (Feb. 17) — Barring injury or a lengthy slump, Auston Matthews will become, this season, the first player to score more than 60 goals for the Toronto Maple Leafs. After his hattrick against Philadelphia, Matthews is on pace for 71, which would represent the highest total in the National Hockey League since Alex Mogilny (Buffalo) and Teemu Selanne (Winnipeg) counted 76 in 1992–93. Also, it would tie Matthews with Wayne Gretzky (1982–83) and Jari Kurri (1984–85) for the eighth–highest figure in NHL history. To call him, even now, the greatest sniper in the annals of the Blue and White is hardly premature. That could become official sometime next season, as Auston is 76 goals shy of drawing even with franchise leader Mats Sundin, who potted 420 in Toronto.

How, then, do we reconcile that Matthews has a mere 22 goals in 50 career playoff games? Again, 45 in 51 this season; 22 in 50 all time when the stakes increase. Including not a single tally in the past six elimination matches and zero goals in the five–game loss to Florida last May. Yes, I know: I’m being “negative”. But, the numbers simply do not lie. Rather, they dovetail quite noticeably with the club’s poor record of one playoff–round victory in eight attempts since No. 34 came aboard as the first pick of the 2016 NHL draft. All of which means absolutely nothing to Brendan Shanahan and Brad Treliving, who have ensured that Matthews and William Nylander will be cornerstones of the team for the next four to eight years. With Mitch Marner almost certain to join them as a Leaf for life after next season. We can argue until the cows come home about the Leafs putting long–term faith in players that habitually shrink when the Stanley Cup hunt begins. That much is irrefutable, given documentation over seven years — a long time in professional sport with nothing tangible to show. I’ve made it abundantly clear that the Leafs, were they truly interested in competing for a championship, would have understood the need for fundamental change after the Montreal playoff debacle of 2021. Instead, Shanahan keeps on rewarding his elite forwards for accomplishment in the regular season while overlooking an obvious and glaring deficit once the playoffs begin.

With management granting full, no–movement privileges the way Santa Claus hands out candy canes, these are your Maple Leafs for the foreseeable future. Like it or not (and I don’t). As such, and as always, the club can only nibble on the fringes of the roster while trying to improve. The Toronto way, for all but three years (2014–15–16), has been to unload high draft choices for a quick fix at the trade deadline that never materializes. Bryan Hayes of TSN told colleague Jay Onrait on SportsCenter that this is the year for Toronto to virtually stand pat, citing a near–empty cupboard of first and second–round picks… and that last year’s Stanley Cup finalists (Vegas and Florida) did nothing at the deadline. Had the Leafs experienced even a modicum of playoff success in the Core–4 era, I would agree with Bryan. But, it’s been proven beyond much doubt that Shanahan, Treliving and Sheldon Keefe cannot expect the big–money boys up front to maintain or elevate performance after the regular season. They can hope for it, as every spring, yet there’s no basis for such promise. So, I contend the Leafs have to make a potentially big improvement irrespective of the core pieces. And, there’s no better place to look than between the pipes.

During his soliloquy on SportsCenter, Hayes (and, I’m paraphrasing) said to Onrait “the Leafs have the best goal scorer up front; loads of offensive skill around Auston Matthews; the heavy lifting they did last off season (Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi); whoever in net, and a good playoff defenseman in Morgan Rielly.” The “whoever in net” was mentioned as kind of a subordinate clause — Hayes referring to one of Ilya Samsonov, Martin Jones or Joseph Woll, but unwittingly pointing out the biggest question–mark surrounding the Maple Leafs: is goaltending, right now, of Stanley Cup caliber? It’s been all over the map so far this season. Samsonov, the undisputed opening–night starter, scuffled to the point of passing through NHL waivers in January. Woll has, quite remarkably, been sidelined for more than ten weeks with a high–ankle sprain. People recover more quickly from organ transplants. Jones was signed as insurance and performed well over a half–dozen games with Samsonov out of the picture.

Some might suggest a bigger question involves the Core–4 and whether it can put up regular–season numbers in the Cup tournament. Given seven long years, however, there’s no mystery to the answer. By now, Leafs Nation should anticipate regression, in particular, from Matthews and Marner. The blue line hardly resembles a balanced, cohesive unit and has only one semi–elite performer: Rielly. So, it would appear the Maple Leafs need a goaltender that can steal playoff games… and, perhaps, even a series. There are too many “what if’s” among the trio that has split the chores this season. But, one of the NHL’s premier stoppers could be available before the Mar. 8 trade embargo. I’ve written about him before: Juuse Saros of the Nashville Predators.

A few days ago, Nashville general manager Barry Trotz offered this candid remark about Saros: “He’s been a special player, no question. But at the same time, you have to listen for the long–term as well. If an asset comes that you just can’t envision yourself getting — and our strength is goaltending — then you would have to consider [trading Saros]. And I told him that.” Should it happen, the Predators will extract an enormous price, given the netminder’s age, contract, career numbers and versatility (he led all NHL goalies in games played last season and the one before). At 28, Saros may just be entering his prime. Elite goalies traditionally “mature” a bit later than position players (see Johnny Bower, Dominik Hasek, Tim Thomas, Curtis Joseph, Ed Belfour). So, Saros is a probable gem. Consider, first, that he has two years of control remaining on his contract at a very manageable $5 million cap hit (without movement restrictions). He’ll be 29 in April; the perfect age for a goalie to excel. Joseph is the best Leafs stopper of the post–1967 era. His tenure here, from 1998–99 to 2001–02, spanned from ages 31 to 35.

Belfour was 38 and 39 when he enjoyed his two very good seasons in our town (2002–2004).

Saros, if he remains healthy, could be prominent for another decade in the NHL. Which would carry the Leafs well beyond the prime years of their elite forwards. Not since Bower (1958–69) has a Toronto netminder held the fort over such a span (the closest being Frederik Andersen: 2016–21). But, the Maple Leafs, quite obviously, stand no chance of competing for Saros if they plan to remain quiet before the trade deadline. On the contrary, Treliving would almost surely have to yield Woll, this year’s first–round draft pick and one of Easton Cowan or Fraser Minten. Sounds like a lot to give up, yet not really if it provides the Blue and White the potential for stability in goal through the biological prime of Nylander, Matthews et al. Yes, the blue line is forever in need of a Norris Trophy candidate and more muscle. But, aren’t the Leafs rather overdue to solidify the game’s most important position?

Knowing Shanahan, who calls the shots from the ivory tower, the club will stay conservative. Toronto hasn’t pulled off a blockbuster trade in nearly three decades, since Wendel Clark went to the old Quebec Nordiques for Sundin just prior to the 1994 NHL draft in Hartford. In the past seven years, everything has revolved around the Core–4. Stanley Cup teams traditionally orbit goaltending and defense. Not fancy forwards. But, the big–money boys in blue and white are locked in tighter than leather pants on a runway model.

Prospects and draft picks are the lone currency for Shanahan and Treliving.

They can hang onto them and cross their fingers.

Or, the Leafs can make a determined bid to land one of the NHL’s best goalies.

From this corner, it is hardly a difficult choice.

LANNY IMPROVING: Hall–of–Fame winger Lanny McDonald, who suffered a flat–line heart attack 12 days ago at Calgary Airport, is coming along nicely in his recovery. According to close friend and former Leafs line–mate, Darryl Sittler, ol’ Machine Gun could leave hospital and return home this weekend. McDonald turned 71 on Friday.

WHERE WERE YOU 50 YEARS AGO?

The Leafs were losing, 4–1, at Chicago on this date in 1974… and about to absorb a gut punch. The club’s next game was against Buffalo: a 4–2 triumph at home on Feb. 20. Veteran defenseman Tim Horton of the Sabres, still regarded alongside Borje Salming as the greatest blue–liner in Leafs history, played the match with a broken cheekbone. Afterward, the pain dulled by narcotics, he received permission from GM Punch Imlach to drive back to Buffalo. While negotiating a curve on the QEW near St. Catharines, Horton lost control of his Ford Pantera and was thrown from the vehicle. Though he appeared physically intact, without scrapes or bruises, the Hall–of–Famer broke his neck in the accident and died. What a shock it was for the entire hockey world, but particularly fans of the Maple Leafs and Sabres. Tim was buried the following Monday (Feb. 25) at York Cemetery in Toronto.

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