TORONTO (Feb. 8) — Darryl Sittler. Doug Gilmour. Auston Matthews.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have been around since 1926; the franchise, previously known as the Arenas and St. Patricks, since 1917. Only three players in 108 years have struck for a minimum 100 points in a National Hockey League season. They are listed above. A fourth–such figure, barring injury, will join the small group sometime late in the current schedule. With 71 points after 53 games, Mitch Marner is on pace for 113 points. Which would represent the third–highest total in franchise history, trailing only Gilmour (127 in 1992–93) and Sittler (117 in 1977–78). Wayne Gretzky, no surprise, holds the record for a player switching teams in free agency. He amassed 102 points with Los Angeles and St. Louis in 1995–96 before joining the New York Rangers. Marner, if healthy, should overcome that mark. Then, if he so chooses, will walk from the Maple Leafs on July 1 for no return.

In a straightforward circumstance, the reaction would be universal: there’s no way the club can allow Marner to escape. This circumstance, however, is as straightforward as a drive through the canyons of Los Angeles (lots of sharp turns, if you haven’t been). It is complicated, beyond measure, by economics, the salary cap, the player’s talent and — most–significantly, in my view — the team’s lack of success in the playoffs during the Core–4 era.

Anyone who even occasionally visits this corner will know that I’ve been pushing the Leafs for fundamental change since the playoff collapse against Montreal nearly four years ago. That doresn’t mean rearranging the deck chairs with interchangable components, as do the Leafs every year on the periphery of the roster. It requires dismantling, at least partiallty, the core elements of the club. Which management either doesn’t want to do… or, in my opinion, is petrified to try. The post–season results since 2021 (and even before) just keep making my point.

If Marner wishes to remain a Leaf — and management wants him to stay — there’s a fairly uncluttered path.

A $7.5 million bump in the cap figure for next season will help the Maple Leafs retain their most–gifted skater. But, paying Marner $13 million would bloat the cap commitment among the Big 3 draft choices (Marner, William Nylander, Matthews) to $37.75 million, just $1.25 million more than the original salary ceiling ($39 million), adopted for the 2005–06 schedule. It would gobble up 39.5% of the cap figure for 2025–26… marginally less than the 40.5% doled out to the Big 3 this season. For a club, however, that has sorely lacked balance and playoff results in the past decade, it’s still too much. And, therein lies the conundrum. Marner will soon become one of only 126 players in the NHL to record triple digits in a season. Just for fun (but, also for comparison), the others with 113 points are: Paul Coffey, Pittsburgh (1988–89); Brett Hull, St. Louis (1989–90); Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay (2022–23); Jari Kurri, Edmonton (1983–84); Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh (2008–09); David Pastrnak, Boston (2022–23); Gilbert Perreault, Buffalo (1975–76) and Mark Recchi, Pittsburgh (1990–91). Not many bums in that group.

Had Nylander, Marner and Matthews experienced even a modicum of playoff success with the Leafs, it would be a no–brainer to keep the troika intact. The two sides might have already announced a contract extension.

Given, however, the paradox of performance in the Stanley Cup tournament over the better part of a decade, how can the club remain, indefinitely, with a losing combination? The evidence for fundamental change since the Montreal playoff debacle is overwhelming. Were I in charge the Maple Leafs — and I’ve made this clear since 2021; crystal–clear since his no–show in the 2023 second–round loss to Florida — Matthews would have been sacrified in lieu of Nylander and Marner. But, there was no way the Leafs would allow the most–prolific regular season scorer in franchise history to depart. Even if he routinely became half that player beyond mid–April.

In that realm, of course, how do you single out a member of the Big 3? All have been comparatively futile once the Cup chase begins. Which, again, highlights a dilemma: Watching a 113–point scorer wave too–da–loo will be a humiliation for the franchise — even if self–induced by allowing the player to dictate the future (two years of no–movement at the end of his current dealt). The path of least resistence, which has been the Leafs’ way during much of the Brendan Shanahan administration, will be to lock up the Big 3 for the prime juncture of their careers. Leaf jerseys with NYLANDER, MARNER or MATTHEWS on the back will continue to fly off the shelves. Patrons of Scotiabank Arena will be guaranteed a flashy and entertaining product during the lengthy NHL schedule.

But, make no mistake, the club will not challenge for the Stanley Cup.

It’s been proven, beyond measure, that the Big 3 lack the drive and conviction necessary to endure four rounds of playoff slog. At least, as part of the same group. If otherwise, it would have happened already. Opportunity for the Leafs in the spring has been plentiful… and routinely flubbed. Not once. Not twice. But, in eight consecutive attempts. What am I telling Leaf fans that they don’t already know? When we hear or read about the Florida Panthers, it is often emphasized how the defending champs “wear down” the opposition with size and grit through four playoff rounds. Does anyone out there truly believe Nylander, Marner and Matthews can do the same?

The Maple Leafs, again, have made their own bed here. They saw to it that Nylander and Matthews would have to be retained before Marner. Which left Marvelous Mitch as No. 3… when he probably should be No. 1.

We therefore return — and conclude — with the elemental Maple Leaf matter since 1967: Is there enough motivation, in this reflex hockey market, to properly strive for the NHL title? The last time it came close was by accident. Cliff Fletcher talked about a five–year plan when he assumed control of the hockey club in June 1991. Then, he traded with Calgary for Doug Gilmour; added Dave Andreychuk in a deal with Buffalo, and the five–year plan became two months. Gilmour, scrawny but undeterred, dragged the Leafs to within five minutes of the 1993 Stanley Cup final before Wayne Gretzky did his thing for the Los Angeles Kings. Later on, there was much playoff noise under Pat Quinn — his clubs led artistically by Mats Sundin and Tomas Kaberle, but stoutly reinforced by such hard–core veterans as Gary Roberts, Shayne Corson, Darcy Tucker, Wade Belak, Tie Domi and Dmitri Yushkevich. The “snot” that Brad Treliving eluded to when he became general manager of the Maple Leafs.

The current Toronto group doesn’t even have a runny nose at playoff time.

Which I think has become fairly obvious to Marner. Remember: he makes the ultimate call on whether to stay or go. Does Mitch want to remain in his hyper–critical home town and continue performing in front of lifelong friends? Or, is the newly married man, to be 27 on May 5, looking for a fresh start? Are the Leafs actively trying to keep Marner? Or, does management reluctantly view what the rest of us can see at playoff time? Perhaps when Keith Pelley talked about more than just “selling jerseys” last May, he knew the Maple Leafs would not clamor to retain the Big 3 beyond the current season. Time, of course, will unravel the mystery. And, time is beginning to run short.

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