TORONTO (Mar. 24) — If you are Brendan Shanahan and Brad Treliving, how can you not wait until after the playoffs to determine your strategy with Mitch Marner and John Tavares? What would happen, for example, if both players re–signed with the club this week… only to author yet another springtime calamity alongside Auston Matthews and William Nylander? It would cement current ownership and management as the impulsive, fainthearted group responsible for the biggest era of underachievement in franchise history. When it stubbornly refused to crater the Core–4 after the 2021 COVID playoff disaster against Montreal (blowing a 3–1 series lead).
Shanahan, of course, will advocate for a furtherance of the status–quo. He’s interminably under the Core–4 “spell” and cannot snap out of it. So, someone at Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment needs to quickly put up his/her hands and say “just hang on a minute.” If, in fact, there’s a person at the company who believes that prematurely latching onto the veteran nucleus may not prove the greatest idea. Perhaps Marner, himself, is keenly aware of the outcry that would accompany a ninth playoff fizzle by the not–so vaunted Core. Particularly if another opponent blows past him to score the elimination goal. It makes zero sense for either party to engage in closing negotiations until after the Stanley Cup chase. Unless… “branding” is all that truly matters at Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment: a star–struck company that sells star appeal. If the Core–4 and its merchandising potential remains on the upswing, all efforts will be made to retain the current group. The conglomerate that owns the Maple Leafs proved again, last week, that the bottom–line rules every decision — on and off the ice. Season–ticket subscribers as far north as the Standing Room levels of Scotiabank Arena were smacked with unconscionable price gouges by a company that cares only about maintaining profit margin. If that pursuit requires for Nylander, Marner, Matthews and Tavares to remain together, management will soon fall at the ankles of both pending free agents.
From a hockey perspective, of course, it could be a self–inflicted wound. For which no Toronto fan needs an explanation. That’s why you’ve got to hold off a bit longer. If… somehow… some way… the big–money boys come out of hibernation for the first time and the Leafs advance to the Eastern Conference final, the narrative changes. Perhaps for both sides. Neither player nor manager nor owner has been through a satisfactory experience, here, at Stanley Cup time. Until it happens, how would they know which way to react? A playoff run commensurate with skill, at long last, could make the decision simpler for the Leafs, Marner and Tavares. There’s no reason to get anything done right now. Within the span of three months, we’ll know which team hoisted Lord Stanley’s bauble — and how the Maple Leafs factored into the equation. Only then should key decisions be addressed.
IS “WOLL–ARZ” A SURE THING? I keep reading that the Maple Leafs, for the first time in ages, have no goaltending issues heading toward the playoffs. It’s a plausible claim given how well Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz have performed in their first season as a tandem. Yet here we are, in the third week of March, and no person can affirm which netminder will begin the Stanley Cup tournament. Such a question (barring injury) does not exist in Washington (Logan Thompson), Winnipeg (Connor Hallebuyck), Florida (Sergei Bobrovsky), Tampa Bay (Andrei Vasilevskiy), Dallas (Jake Oettinger), Carolina (Pyotr Kuchetkov), New Jersey (Jacob Markstrom), Edmonton (Stuart Skinner) or Vegas (Adin Hill). But, it seems to be an annual guessing game in these parts, juggling between Ilya Samsonov, Matt Murray and Woll a year ago. Maybe the Leafs have two unflappable netminders; both of which can be counted upon this spring. If so, the club will make some noise. Still, we don’t know which of the two will be on the upswing in mid–April. They seem to be alternating, of late, between good and average. Whenever one goalie strings together a couple or three wins, he’s the guy for the playoffs. Until a bad game leads to the second guy moving ahead. I suspect that Shanahan, Treliving and Craig Berube would rather not have such uncertainty one month before the playoffs. Both stoppers need to stay healthy for the Leafs to stand a chance.
SHOOTOUT HAS BECOME COMICAL: There is no indication the owners in the National Hockey League want to shelve the silly shootout. But, couldn’t some barriers be put in place so the penalty shot phase marginally resembles the prior 65 minutes? Nick Suzuki of Montreal, on Saturday night, gathered in the puck at center ice and skated wide to his left (stopping only because of the boards and glass)… then back to his right… at which point he chose to actually approach Colorado goalie Mackenzie Blackwood. Prior to shooting, however, he essentially stopped in front of the Avalanche net and attempted a sloppy deke, only to realize he was in too far and had lost all momentum. He lifted a harmless backhand wide of the right goalpost. This blight on the game could easily disappear by ruling that shooters execute a straight–in approach with commensurate speed. As one might if on an actual breakaway while being chased by defenders. Or, as players did while taking rare penalty shots during the era of tie games in the NHL (prior to 1983–84). This veering from one side of the rink to the other would never happen in actual competition. Neither could a shooter slow to a stop without getting trampled. The shootout, in my view, is an idea that has long–passed its time. Now, it’s becoming a farce. Evidently, with the league’s approval.
FURTHER MUSINGS: Among the best moves made by the Toronto Star was to bring back Damien Cox as a “guest” columnist; sharing the role with former Leafs GM Gord Stellick and Sportsnet guru Nick Kypreos. I always look forward to Damien’s opinion and I usually agree with him. That wasn’t the case on Monday, when Cox posted a column downplaying the recent Leaf losses to bottom–feeders San Jose and Nashville, suggesting these upsets occur league wide. Which of course they do, periodically, over the six–month, 82–game warmup to the playoffs. “As if it only happens to Craig Berube’s team,” Cox wrote. “We’ll, it doesn’t. Just ask the Winnipeg Jets, who hosted Buffalo, the league’s 29th best team, Sunday and managed to drop a 5-3 decision.” Indeed, it was a 100–point team losing at home to a 60–point opponent. Otherwise, the analogy missed the mark. The Jets have been home and (mostly) cooled out atop the Central Division from the outset, crafting a 15–1–0 record in their first 16 games. They lead second–place Dallas by six points (the Stars have a game in hand). The Leafs, conversely, are in a dogfight with Florida and Tampa Bay for positioning in the compacted Atlantic Division. What I’m saying here is simple: the Jets could afford to let up against the Sabres; the Leafs could not, on Saturday, against the lowly Predators. But, they did. Somewhat typically, after building an early 2–0 lead. Where I totally agree with Damien is the contention that the Leafs of the 2000’s are so–easily fulfilled. The “satisfaction” of the quick lead at Bridgestone Arena was evident soon after. And, for the balance of the match, which the visitors mailed in. So, yeah, we don’t know how the Atlantic will configure in the final weeks of the schedule. But, go easy on the Leafs/Jets comparison. At least until after the playoffs… That said, we should learn more about the Winnipeg club tonight when it plays host to Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals. The only 100–point teams in the NHL colliding. Perhaps a Stanley Cup final preview?… What to do with Morgan Rielly? The longest–serving Leaf is careening through the worst season of his 12–year career in the NHL. He’s been the equivalent of a third or fourth–pairing defenseman throughout the 2024–25 schedule. That’s far–too little return for $7.5 million and a full no–movement clause. For the first time since he signed his eight–year extension with former GM Kyle Dubas (which kicked in for 2022–23), the Leafs can deal with Rielly’s contract. The club is eligible to buy out the veteran blueliner after this season. With $32 million of salary remaining — at age 31 — Morgan would procure a 67% buyout multiplier. Receiving $21,333,333 over the next 10 years. The Leafs would be on the hook for $2,133,333 in each year of the buyout, the figure counting against the rising cap. But, the club would preserve $5,366,667 of cap space per season. Is it a worthwhile consideration? Given that Rielly has been a good soldier for more than a decade; that the Leafs do not possess another defenseman capable of resembling a No. 1, and that the Shanahan administration doesn’t color outside the lines, it’s likely Morgan will be provided the opportunity to rebound with the Blue and White. Another option would be to determine whether Rielly would waive his no–move for a trade. In my view, the Leafs cannot bring him back at $7.5 million against the cap. It’s just a bad exchange. As with Auston Matthews, Morgan often exhibits what I call “market fatigue.” Playing 12 years for this godforsaken team in a crazed and confused hockey environment would wear on any mortal. Clearly, it has taken its toll on Rielly. He needs a change of locale and the team would be better off moving forward without him. None of this is to diminish or downplay the impact Morgan has made on the club. Though never wearing the ‘C’, he’ has long–been the de facto spokesperson for the Leafs. Always available and usually dead–honest. But, his game has fallen off a cliff. The Leafs need to look elsewhere to finally obtain (or develop) a Norris Trophy type; not witnessed in these parts for more than 45 years (Borje Salming)… Here’s an iron–clad guarantee: the Leafs will over–compensate Matthew Knies, enjoying a breakout season with 25 goals. But, not yet worth $7 million — or a max contract (eight years). Matthew needs to prove himself over the course of two or three seasons. A “bridge” deal of three or four years at $6 million would make sense for the pending restricted free agent (he cannot play anywhere but Toronto). Instead, the Leafs will likely do their thing and lock Knies into a ridiculous, unmanageable contract. It’s just the Toronto way… The Leafs give away first–round draft picks like Santa does candy canes, but I would still advise against throwing in the towel on Scott Laughton. Though the former Flyers’ center hasn’t yet found his way in a Leafs jersey, he is replete with character and the sort of player that can step up, big time, in the Stanley Cup tournament. Remember the valued role the late Peter Zezel played with the Pat Burns—Doug Gilmour Leafs of the early 1990’s? Or, that which Travis Green and Yanic Perreault offered Pat Quinn? I’m thinking Laughton could fill a similar void with Berube. Don’t write him off… Hard to fathom that the last true playoff hero for the Leafs turned 85 this week. Dave Keon won the Conn Smythe Trophy in 1967, as Toronto upset Chicago and Montreal.
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