TORONTO (Apr. 16) — After a 21–year hiatus, the Battle of Ontario will resume when it matters most. And, the Toronto Maple Leafs, performing as they are, should not be acutely threatened by the upstart and improving Ottawa Senators, even if Ottawa cleaned up in head–to–head encounters during the regular season. The key is the Maple Leafs getting through these next few days without anyone of note slipping in the shower. And, most importantly, the club’s consequential figures sustaining momentum once the puck is dropped on the weekend in the Stanley Cup chase — a perennial and chronic deficit of the Core–4 era. Does the puny playoff pattern repeat?

Not likely in the opening act, for the Leafs have almost–never functioned as thoroughly in the waning portion of a National Hockey League schedule. The Senators aren’t polished enough — yet — to take down a deeper opponent. And, they must somehow break through the nearly impenetrable wall erected by Anthony Stolarz, the Toronto goalie with eight consecutive wins; just 11 goals allowed during that span, and an otherworldly .950 save–percentage. The back–up to Sergei Bobrovsky with the Stanley Cup–champion Florida Panthers hasn’t allowed a score in his past three starts. The Leafs are 12–2–1 in their past 15 games and Mitch Marner became (during a 4–0, Division–clinching triumph in Buffalo) the first Toronto winger to amass 100 points in a regular season. Not accomplished in blue and white by such–legendary figures as Frank Mahovlich, Lanny McDonald, Rick Vaive, Dave Andreychuk (who came closest, in 1993–94, with 99 points while playing alongside Doug Gilmour) and Alexander Mogilny. If you pause to remember the “18–wheelers” of yore, this late surge should provide the Leafs confidence to, minimally, match the opening–round victory, two springs ago, over Tampa Bay. And, perhaps to threaten the Lightning or Panthers in the Eastern Conference semifinal; the Florida teams will clash in the other Atlantic series.

The fear, naturally, among local hockey types is that the Core–4 version of the Leafs cannot locate the “on/off” switch once the Stanley Cup tournament begins. It’s been nearly a decade–long struggle with the nucleus formed by Marner, William Nylander, Auston Matthews (who scored his 400th career goal on Tuesday) and John Tavares. It says here the demons of playoffs past will offer the Maple Leafs more resistence than the plucky Senators.

But, you never know with this Toronto group. Right?

GOALIE ED BELFOUR AND DEFENSEMAN BRYAN McCABE CONTEND WITH OTTAWA’S RADEK BONK DURING THE 2004 PLAYOFF BATTLE BETWEEN THE MAPLE LEAFS AND SENATORS: A SEVEN–GAME TORONTO TRIUMPH. LEAFS ALSO ELIMINATED THE SENS IN 2000, 2001 AND 2002.

What Leaf fans have learned, agonizingly, is that regular–season accomplishment is irrelevant once the playoffs begin. The pace and physical demands of the Cup slog rachet up immeasurably — a transition the key Toronto skaters have failed to execute. What happens if veteran Linus Ullmark gets hot and matches Stolarz save for key save? Or, if the rabble–rousing Brady Tkachuk is healthy enough to create his usual havoc and get under the skin of, particularly, Marner and Matthews? The Panthers, led by Brady’s brother, Matthew Tkachuk, turned the Leaf shooters into marshmallows during the second round of the 2023 playoffs (a five–game romp). The absolute key, therefore, is that the M&M boys are not ground into submission during the first five games of the Ottawa series, so that scoring might finally occur (if necessary) in Games 6 and 7: a wasteland for the Core–4 Leafs since 2017.

The burden and strain will fall on the more–experienced team against a provincial rival playing with house money. Ottawa finished a hefty 42 points behind Toronto three years ago; 24 points last season. If the Senators, therefore, approach the series with limited anxiety and extend the Maple Leafs beyond Game 5, nightmares will begin to flourish. Particularly if they steal one of the first two games at Bay and Lakeshore… though the Leafs have proven a comfortable road team during Craig Berube’s first season behind the bench (25–13–3 compared to 18–19–4 away from home for the Senators). There are so many reasons why Ottawa should not prevail in this series.

As such, I am positioning myself for abundant ridicule, especially from cousin Brian Gold, the patriarch of my maternal family, who has long resided in the nation’s capital. Brian turned 80 in February and will not appreciate my staunch conjecture about the first Toronto–Ottawa playoff quarrel since 2004: Maple Leafs in five. Bank it.

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