TORONTO (Apr. 12) — A Maple Leafs anniversary passed on Friday without acknowledgement or fanfare: Brendan Shanahan marked 11 years as president of the hockey club. You’ll excuse local scribes and pundits if they didn’t laud the occasion as intended, with at least one championship to bite into the longest Stanley Cup drought. A piddly single playoff triumph, in the opening round, two years ago, prompted no one in the media (even the Leafs–owned media at Sportsnet) to observe the moment. So, let it happen here… and recognize there will be no more Brendan Shanahan and the Leafs without, minimally, first–round advancement this spring. And, how difficult should that be? In spite of their playoff misadventures since 2018, if the Maple Leafs — at this moment in the Core–4 era — finish atop the Atlantic Division; earn home–ice advantage… and cannot defeat a wild card opponent, Shanahan will be gone and the National Hockey League’s most–resilient fans will wallow. Yet again.

This will be an especially plaintiff wail if the victorious rival is Ottawa or Montreal, occupying the Nos. 1 and 2 wild card positions in the Eastern Conference and markedly improved over last season. With due respect to both clubs, neither should be remotely favored against Toronto in a best–of–seven series. Even the upstart Senators, who mopped the floor with the Leafs during the regular schedule. The locals have again accrued 100 points — not attained by the franchise until 1999–2000 and accomplished, now, on nine occasions (including the past five full, 82–game seasons). Ottawa finished 24 points behind the Leafs last season; as many as 42 points in arrears just three years ago. How, then, could the Maple Leafs justify a first–round submission to such a playoff newby? Same with the Canadiens, though we surely remember what happened during the COVID playoffs. One can barely imagine the environment in these parts under a repeat–scenario: the Maple Leafs gobbing up a 3–1 series edge and losing Game 7 at home. If it were possible in 2021, it is darned conceivable today. It just better not happen.

One way or another, Toronto will have to defeat a Florida–based team to reach the Conference final. At the moment, before Saturday’s games, it appears such a clash would be reserved for the second playoff round. The Leafs hold a two–point lead over Tampa Bay and a four–point edge on the Panthers. Toronto has four games to play; the Florida teams three apiece. Two victories by the Leafs should secure the Division and set up a first–round battle with Ottawa (the Senators would require a total collapse to finish behind the Habs). It is way past the time, of course, for the Sens to be seeking retribution for the quartet of playoff losses to the Maple Leafs between 2000 and 2004. Just as Toronto — if reaching the Conference final — could not say “told you so” with a straight face after eight consecutive debacles in the Stanley Cup tournament. For each club, it’s about now. Not the distant past. And, certainly not the immediate future, with Mitch Marner and John Tavares free to depart this summer.

THE LEAFS WILL HAVE TO SHOW LOTS OF FIGHT AGAINST OTTAWA IN THE PLAYOFFS. DESPITE A POOR RECORD IN THE REGULAR SEASON, TORONTO WILL BE FAVORED OVER THE SENATORS. Christopher Katsarov/The Canadian Press

The onus will be squarely on the Leafs in a battle against Ottawa. Though the Toronto players won’t admit it, losing with home ice advantage to an upstart, provincial rival would likely top all previous playoff disasters (save, perhaps, for the Montreal collapse). It simply cannot happen to this Toronto team. Given that Marner, Tavares, William Nylander and Auston Matthews have yet to craft a playoff résumé after eight attempts, there are no guarantees. But, the Leafs absolutely must advance beyond the opening round this spring. Out west, there isn’t a person alive who will favor either St. Louis or Minnesota against Winnipeg. Neither should the Senators be given a huge chance against the Maple Leafs. We all know how well Linus Ullmark can perform when he’s in the zone; Ottawa pulled a terrific coup by acquiring the veteran goalie from Boston. Yet, Ullmark should not be expected to outplay Anthony Stolarz in the Toronto crease. Stolarz has prevailed in his past six starts, with a 1.82 goals–against average and .936 save–percentage; both sprectacular figures and occurring at the optimum juncture of the season.

If Anthony stays hot, the Leafs will move past the Senators on to Florida or Tampa Bay.

On the flip–side, which forever exists with the Blue and White at playoff time, the Toronto skaters will need to develop amnesia before the puck is dropped, a week from tonight, at Scotiabank Arena. Forgetting their own dismal performances in Stanley Cup years past while trying to ignore why Ottawa so dominated the regular–season series. This will be a particular challenge if Brady Tkachuk of the Senators is healthy enough to irritate Matthews and Marner (as only a Tkachuk can do). And, if Ullmark can slam the door on the big–money Leaf shooters. As mentioned, there are no guarantees. Not even a bloodletting at Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment, which is satisfied with regular–season accomplishment and the sale of team merchandise. A “normal” hockey club would have long–ago changed course; surely after the fiasco of the Montreal humiliation in 2021. So, we cannot accurately predict how MLSE will proceed on the cusp of another spring faceplant. We do know how the Toronto market will react. But, external voices rarely count for much at Bay and Lakeshore. Why should they start mattering now?

G–MAC IS GONE: Condolences to the family of Gerry McNamara, the former Leafs GM who died on Friday at 90. McNamara ran the Leafs during a particularly inglorious span (1982–88), but will be immortalized for uncovering the co–greatest defenseman in franchise history, Borje Salming (sharing the nod with Tim Horton). While scouting for the club, McNamara made a trip to Sweden in early 1973 and immediately had eyes for Salming. The gifted blueliner played 16 seasons for the Leafs and is still the franchise leader in assists (620), though Marner is closing fast at 517. G–Mac was a devoted family man. I got to know him well away from the arena. May he rest in peace.

LEAFS LEGENDS LENDING AN EAR…

Like many of us, I don’t often perk up when going through “junk” mail. But, I definitely took notice of the cardboard flier, above, when it arrived this week. It featured two of my all–time Maple Leafs heroes — Lanny McDonald and Darryl Sittler — vouching for Connect Hearing and encouraging senior types to their hearing tested. Lanny turned 72 in February; Sittler will be 75 in September. Along with Errol Thompson, in 1975–76, they formed the most–prolific Maple Leafs forward line in a single season (McDonald and Sittler hockey cards, below, from that year). The trio combined for 273 points with Sittler becoming the first Toronto player to reach 100 in a season. It was McDonald’s breakout year in the NHL, with 37 goals and 93 points. Thompson, the left–winger, paced the line with 43 goals. Hard to believe it’s coming up on half–a–century since that time.

 
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