TORONTO (Apr. 5) — In the “credit where credit is due” category, the Maple Leafs are rather fortunate they outlasted the Florida Panthers on Wednesday night at Scotiabank Arena. While there was joyous media celebration over the narrow and equivocal outcome (a 3–2 Toronto victory), one can barely imagine the distressing hockey environment around here had the Leafs lost at home to half the Stanley Cup champions for a second time this month. Instead, the boys in blue eeked out a one–score triumph, mostly from another brilliant performance by goalie Anthony Stolarz — a legitimate wild card for the club as it nears the playoffs. As I wrote after the trade deadline, the best transaction of the Brad Treliving era, to date, is that of Stolarz from the Panthers last July. If he gets into the “zone” for a prolonged stretch, the Leafs will compete against any rival. Otherwise, I need way more evidence that the current Toronto club is fundamentally different from those that have routinely come up small at playoff time. And, the proof cannot begin to evolve until the puck is dropped in the Stanley Cup tournament.

It doesn’t require much in these famished parts for writers and columnists to bust out “this is the Leafs team we’ve been waiting for” articles. Which, predictably, followed the Florida conquest, even with the visitors missing four of their top six skaters: the emotional fulcrum (Matthew Tkachuk); the club’s most–gifted player (Aleksander Barkov) and two of its top defensemen (Aaron Ekblad, Dmitry Kulikov). This would be akin to the Leafs skating without John Tavares, Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly and Chris Tanev. Might they be jumping up and down in Sunrise had the reverse prevailed: the Panthers squeaking by at home against such a depleted Toronto side? Methinks not. So, I refuse to get sucked in by another epic moment in the regular schedule. Been there, seen that too often since 2017; the Leafs with virtually nothing to show when it counts. Why should the pattern change this spring?

The Core–4 version of the Leafs has never displayed the ability, or willingness, to man up and play “big” in the Stanley Cup slog. Were this a team built for Cup success, wouldn’t we know it by now? Heading into Year 9 of the experiment? Even veteran Leaf observers dismiss from mind the contrast between league and playoff hockey. There must be a reason why the President’s Trophy winner almost never hoists the Stanley Cup. And, why the home/road split becomes so utterly irrelevant in the spring (even though it remains an axiom that teams want Game 7 in their own barn). But, it’s even bigger. A Stanley Cup team cannot have a truly good game here and there, as do the Leafs at playoff time. Actual contenders claw through the difficult opening round and refuse to become satisfied, unlike the 2023 Maple Leafs after eliminating Tampa Bay. They grow increasingly tougher to subdue and thrive in the physical grind of four playoff rounds over two calendar months. When have the William Nylander–Mitch Marner–Auston Matthews–John Tavares Maple Leafs proven equal to such a prolonged chore?

THE GOOD OL’ DAYS, WHEN THE LEAFS ROUTINELY ADVANCED BEYOND THE FIRST ROUND OF THE PLAYOFFS. ED BELFOUR (20) OF TORONTO SHAKES HANDS WITH PATRICK LALIME OF OTTAWA AFTER A GAME 7 CONQUEST IN 2004. THE LEAFS HAVE JUST ONE SERIES TRIUMPH SINCE THEN.

Neither are we considering possibilities here.

Let’s be honest: the most–baffling element of the past 57 years is that the Leafs have somehow not “fluked” their way into the Stanley Cup final. That the club hasn’t caught lightning in a bottle and made it to the championship round. Even once. How did Florida, in its third National Hockey League season, win the Eastern Conference and face Colorado in the 1996 Cup final? Anaheim, in 2003, with a rookie coach (Mike Babcock) and with no restraints yet on the size of goaltending equipment, came out of the woods and rode the brilliance of Jean–Sébastien Giguere to Game 7 of the championship, losing against New Jersey. Edmonton, disqualified from the playoffs in 2003–04, rebounded the year after the lockout (2005–06) and rambled to the Western Conference title, losing another seven–game final (against Carolina). Though it will never–again happen — in any sport — how did the expansion Vegas Golden Knights get to the Stanley Cup final in their inaugural season (2018)? Only once, since 1967, have the Leafs come close to a full playoff run: in 1993, when Doug Gilmour dragged the club to Game 7 of the semifinals, losing to Wayne Gretzky and the Los Angeles Kings. One time in nearly six decades. The best friend, therefore, of the Leafs is the law of averages, which the club has repeatedly (and spectacularly) tempted.

If the usual media suspects (local and national) continue to say and write that “this is the Leafs’ year”, they’ll be correct. Maybe posthumously, but correct, nonetheless. And, this is where we discuss possibilities.

Because skill has never been an issue with the Core–4 Leafs. If talent and desire were bedfellows, Philadelphia would hold the longest drought (50 years) among teams that have won the Stanley Cup. Not Toronto (coming up to 58 years). And, this is why, presumably, the high command on Bay St. has stood paralyzed during the incomparable string of playoff flops since 2019 (that and jersey sales). So, yes, the Core–4 Leafs could up and bite the rest of the league at any time. Including this spring. Stout goaltending by Stolarz and timely scoring from Matthews and Co. could make the “holdouts” look good. But, really, what are the chances? As written, the Leafs are not built to physically thwart the opposition over four playoff rounds. And, as mentioned a zillion times in this corner, there is no kingpin on the blue line. Leaf apologists are quick to point out that Steve Yzerman and Alex Ovechkin won Stanley Cups later in their careers. What the pundits conveniently overlook is that Yzerman skated with the best European defenseman of all time (Nick Lidstrom) while Ovechkin and the 2018 Capitals were bolstered on the back end by John Carlson (seasons of 75, 71, 70 and 68 points). Though Rielly has put up 72 and 68 points, his game has fallen off a cliff this season. As with virtually all teams in the expansion era, the Leafs cannot win the Stanley Cup while devoid of an elite performer on defense. Borje Salming was the last–such franchise figure, in an era when no team could upend the dynastic Montreal Canadiens of Bowman, Dryden and Lafleur.

Given their late–season push toward first place in the Atlantic Division, the Leafs could be unwittingly postured for a scorched–earth scenario: Losing again in the first round… but, this time, to the upstart Ottawa Senators. With Brady Tkachuk enacting the role of antagonist, held for so many playoff years by Brad Marchand in Boston. The Leafs aren’t particularly effective against notable pests. Or, elite netminders, such as former Bruin Linus Ullmark of the Senators. Imagine, for example, the Maple Leafs winning the first two games at home — getting the locals all excited — then losing four of five, including Game 7 on home ice. It would be the perfect ending to the Core–4 era… the longest, most gut–churning stretch of underachievement in franchise history. And, it’s nearly upon us.

POLITICS ASIDE, FOR THE MOMENT: In the politically charged climate of the Donald Trump/Vladimir Putin era, hockey’s two greatest goalscorers have been the subject of scorn — in their home lands and abroad.

First, it was Alexander Ovechkin repeatedly supporting Putin, the Russian dictator, even after his indefensible attack on neighboring Ukraine. Then, photos emerged of Wayne and Janet Gretzky attending the Trump Inaugural celebration in Washington; the Great One wearing a MAGA cap, then posing with the United States president. Clearly his prerogative. Even through the deafening silence from Gretzky during Trump’s periodic crusade to annex Canada and make our country the 51st state. Which has dramatically turned many Canadians against one of our most–patriotic figures of the past. For a few hours on Friday night — and, rather thankfully — the political angles were cast aside as Ovechkin scored twice against the Chicago Blackhawks to draw even with Gretzky for most career goals in the NHL: 894. Ovechkin’s next attempt to break Gretzky’s mark will occur Sunday afternoon in Elmont, N.Y. when the Washington Capitals visit the New York Islanders. Gretzky will be in attendance, as he was on Friday at Capital One arena. Displaying extraordinary grace while congratulating Ovechkin on a feat I’m certain No. 99 (like the rest of us) felt would last his entire lifetime: most regular–season goals. When reminded on the Capitals’ telecast (simulcast in Canada by Sportsnet) that he “had company” atop the scoring list, Gretzky replied “that’s okay. My dad said the same thing to Gordie Howe way back when. I’m proud of my accomplishments yet very pleased for Alex, who’s been a great player. He deserves to hold the scoring record.” After absorbing a 5–3 setback, the Chicago players remained on the ice to congratulate Ovechkin for tying the Great One.

As Dan O’Leary wrote on NHL.com: “The entire Blackhawks team shook hands with Ovechkin, even goalie Spencer Knight (below), who was light–heartedly booed by fans at Capital One Arena for making a few late saves to prevent the record–breaking goal. As the teams shook hands, loud ‘Ovi! Ovi!’ chants poured on to the ice.”

EMAIL: HOWARDLBERGER@GMAIL.COM