TORONTO (Dec. 17) — After 31 games this season, the Toronto Maple Leafs have amassed 40 points. After 31 games last season, the Maple Leafs had amassed 40 points. And, yet again, we appear to be watching the best version of the Core–4 era. This team is different, we’re being told. As we were told, in November and December, about the Toronto clubs of the previous three National Hockey League seasons. All of which ended the same way: prematurely. Overrating the Leafs and drawing conclusions prior to mid season is a professional sports pandemic around here. No amount of playoff misadventure can alter the perennial narrative. At some point, the law of averages — if nothing else — will make the pundits appear clairvoyant. As of this moment? Groundhog Day.

Let’s compare the vital statistics between this year and last:

2024–25 19–10–2 for 40 points / GF-92 GA-81 plus–11 / Home 14–4–0 Road 5–6–2.
2023–24 17–8–6 for 40 points / GF-115 GA-105 plus–10 / Home 9–5–2 Road 8–3–4.

So, what’s all the fuss? This year’s team is scoring and yielding fewer goals — but at virtually the identical rate as a year ago (plus–11 compared to plus–10). The same culprits to light the lamp in 2023 are lighting it 2024… and will overwhelmingly need to light it in 2025. There is no scoring depth beyond Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares. Never has been. Never will be, so long as the group remains intact. Matthew Knies (11 goals) is playing well and the veteran, Max Pacioretty (four goals in 18 games), was a prudent addition.

Otherwise, and with different names, the Leafs are almost precisely as they were a year ago.

The potential caveats, of course, are the beefed–up blue line and a dependable goaltending tandem (Joseph Woll, Anthony Stolarz) that has enabled scoring to regress without harming the club’s record and place in the standings. Given the grievous injury logs of the two men, no person can reasonably extrapolate into February and March… and certainly not into the Stanley Cup chase. Still 10 games from the mid–schedule mark, Woll and Stolarz have each been on Injured Reserve (Stolarz, currently, down four–to–six weeks with another knee ailment). On what basis, therefore, can we predict the goaltending circumstance five months down the line?

Unquestionably, to this point, “Wollarz” has been the best duo for the Leafs in recallable history. Perhaps, as written here, dating all the way to Jacques Plante and Bernie Parent in the early 70’s. As Dave Feschuk adroitly noted in his most–recent Leafs column for the Toronto Star, a hockey team, today, needs a pair of reliable goalies. Too many games are crammed into the calendar for one man to carry the load. And, to stay healthy. In that regard, “Wollarz” will ultimately be a blessing or a curse for the Maple Leafs. At the moment, a bit of both. As anticipated.

I, too, am impressed with the defensive transformation under coach Craig Berube; personified by the veterans added to the blue line in the off–season: Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman–Larsson. Commingled with Morgan Rielly, Jake McCabe and Simon Benoit, the current Leafs have an excellent group of five. Again — and terminally, it seems — minus the Norris Trophy type. But, similar, in many ways, to the clubs under Pat Burns that made it to consecutive Stanley Cup semifinals in 1993 and 1994. None of Dave Elllett, Bob Rouse, Sylvain Lefebvre, Jamie Macoun or Todd Gill are in the Hockey Hall of Fame. Yet, they performed exceptionally in front of young stopper Felix Potvin. With healthy goaltending, the current Leafs are better–positioned for a deep playoff run.

Providing, of course, the big gunners finally show up when it counts.

On Sunday, Steve Simmons of the Toronto Sun led his weekly notes column by wondering if this might finally be the year for the Leafs and the Buffalo Bills — among the leaders of heartache and underachievement in North American pro sport. Steve beat me to the blog I had planned (you snooze, you lose in this racket). Yes, the Maple Leafs and Bills look more “real” than in prior years. Difference being that no player since Doug Gilmour has done for the Leafs what Josh Allen is accomplishing for the Bills: carrying the entire team on his back, game after game.

I’ve seen all the good Buffalo quarterbacks through the years (Joe Ferguson, Jim Kelly, Drew Bledsoe, Doug Flutie) yet none have terrorized the National Football League quite like Allen. There have been better pure passers (Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, Kelly), but few that possess the entire package. Allen can hurt a defense equally with his legs and arm. In every big game (Kansas City, the Rams, Detroit), he has elevated performance.

It can only lead to a Super Bowl title. This year or next. Count on it.

Right now, Mitch Marner (41 points in 31 games) is the Josh Allen of the Maple Leafs. He was among the NHL scoring leaders through 25 games but has now fallen nine points behind Nathan MacKinnon of Colorado. Of course, Marner’s skill set — unreservedly on display throughout the regular season each year — must rise to prominence in the two–month playoff slog. Or, his career (like Allen’s, to this point) will be one of window dressing.

“GET YOUR SOUVENIR LINE–UPS!”

From my collection, the changing face of Maple Leaf Gardens program centerspreads — 1964 to 1969:

DEC. 19, 1964: Maple Leafs defeated the New York Rangers, 6–3.

NOV. 19, 1966: Maple Leafs defeated the Montreal Canadiens, 5–1.

FEB. 15, 1967: Maple Leafs blanked the New York Rangers, 6–0.

OCT. 25, 1967: Maple Leafs defeated the Los Angeles Kings, 4–2 (first Gardens visit by an expansion team).

NOV. 22, 1969: Maple Leafs blanked the Detroit Red Wings, 4–0.

EMAIL: HOWARDLBERGER@GMAIL.COM